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This paper presents the results of modeling to project Ethiopia’s future resources to finance primary health care and compare them with the likely costs of providing primary care according to current government plans.
The paper explores different scenarios related to health financing contributions and costs, as well as economic, financial, and demographic situations. This model serves to promote financially viable actions towards primary care expansion and reform.
The questions that the model aims to answer are:
• Given the historical trends, what are plausible and likely projections to 2035 for Ethiopia’s resource mobilization and primary care costs?
• Given different economic, demographic, and health service scenarios, what are the possible effects on resource needs and resource availability? What are the gaps in financing implied by different scenarios and how might they be addressed?
• How much of domestic resources are needed for health care spending to reach lower-middle and upper-middle income country benchmarks of spending per capita in 2025 and 2035 respectively?