Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes have emerged as powerful tools in addressing poverty and promoting health equity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Brazil’s Bolsa Família Program (BFP), launched in 2004, stands as one of the world’s most influential and long-standing CCTs, reaching over 50 million individuals. As the country marked the programme’s 20th anniversary in 2024, evaluating its long-term health impact offers vital insights into the effectiveness of social protection strategies in improving population health outcomes.
This study presents a comprehensive retrospective and forward-looking analysis of the BFP’s impact on mortality and hospitalisation rates in Brazil from 2000 to 2019, with projections to 2030. Using robust statistical and microsimulation models across thousands of municipalities, the research demonstrates that high coverage and adequacy of cash transfers significantly reduced overall and age-specific mortality and hospitalisation. These findings strengthen the case for expanding CCTs globally as a key lever for achieving Universal Health Coverage and Sustainable Development Goal 3.