In their article “How feasible is it to mobilise $31 billion a year for pandemic preparedness and response? An economic growth modelling analysis,” Minahil Shahid, Marco Schäferhoff, Garrett Brown, and Gavin Yamey explore the viability of raising $31.1 billion annually for pandemic preparedness and response (PPR) as proposed by the World Bank and WHO. Published in Globalization and Health in 2024, the study analyses projected economic growth in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and donor nations from 2022 to 2027. Using economic growth models, they assess domestic health spending and official development assistance (ODA) under constant and optimistic scenarios.
The study finds that low-income countries would need to allocate 37% of their health spending, lower-middle-income countries 9%, and upper-middle-income countries 1% to PPR annually to meet the targets. Donors would need to dedicate 8% of their total ODA. The researchers conclude that the targets are unlikely to be met without significant funding increases and suggest alternative financing methods such as global taxation, debt cancellation, and addressing illicit financial flows.