Scotland faces a £1bn yearly funding gap as health costs rise with an ageing, unhealthy population, warns fiscal body. Without improved public health, taxes may rise or services face cuts.
The Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) has issued a stark warning about the future of health care funding in Scotland, citing the twin pressures of an ageing and increasingly unhealthy population. A new report published on 8 April forecasts that public service spending is set to outpace funding by an average of £1bn a year over the next 25 years, driven in large part by rising health and social care costs. Health spending currently accounts for around 40% of the Scottish budget, but this could rise to nearly 55% by 2075.
The commission highlighted that without improvements in healthy life expectancy, the financial strain will intensify. The median age is projected to rise from 43 to 49 by 2075, with life expectancy stagnating and mental illness on the rise. The report urged urgent policy responses to improve population health and warned of difficult choices ahead—between higher taxes or reduced public services.
