Recently, the Minister of the national economy of Kazakhstan Ruslan Dalenov presented the results of socio-economic development since the beginning of 2020. At the end of November, inflation was 7.3%, and the GDP decreased by 2.8%.
Inflation, combined with the lockdowns and other quarantine measures, heavily affecting the State budget and population. The expenditure part of the state budget was financed by almost 50% not from current revenues, but from loans (26%) and transfers from the National Fund (23%). This indicates a very difficult situation for the country’s budget system.
“Based on the government’s forecast, the state budget deficit this year will reach 2.5 trillion tenges and amount to 3.5% of GDP. This is higher than the deficit for the previous two years combined. For example, in comparison with last year, it will increase almost twice. Thanks to the” safety cushion ” in the form of the National Fund reserves, which provide 40% of state budget revenues, the size of the deficit can still be kept within acceptable limits. By the way, without the transfer of the National Fund, the deficit would easily exceed 10% of GDP. We assume that the situation in the public sector will not improve significantly next year,” – says Asan Kurmanbekov, the chief analyst of the research Department at Halyk Finance.
Key trends of the 9 month period:
1) The pandemic has negatively affected the budget balance.
2) Tax revenues decreased by 1.63 trillion tenges compared to the same period last year, amounting to 6.92 trillion tenges in January-September 2020.
3) According to the results of the three quarters of 2020, the consolidated budget deficit amounted to 3.6 trillion tenges, and it is expected that by the end of the year it will reach 6.52 trillion tenges.
3) Budget expenditures for the three quarters of 2020 amounted to 11.58 trillion tenges, which is 22.9% higher compared to the same period last year.
4) To cover the budget deficit, loans worth 3.1 trillion tenges were attracted.
5) The transfers from the National Fund to the Republican budget for 9 months amounted to 4.11 trillion tenges out of the planned 4.7 trillion tenges in the current year.
Meanwhile, the investments in fixed assets in the field of health and social services in January–September 2020 amounted to a record for this period of 149.3 billion tenges, which is more than a year earlier, also by an all-time record 87.7% The largest amount of investment in health and social services was directed from local budgets: 55.6 billion tenges-almost 3 times more than last year (+36.5 billion tenges, or +191,3%). 38.3 billion tenges was invested at the expense of organizations’ own funds, growth for the year — by 34.8% (+9.9 billion tenges). Financing from other borrowed funds increased 20 times, to 35.2 billion tenges, of which foreign investment amounted to 210 million tenges. Investments from the national budget decreased by 31.2%, to 19.6 billion tenges, and Bank loans — by 66.5%, to 600.8 million tenges.
Sources:
https://khabar.kz/ru/news/ekonomika/item/130186-inflyatsiya-uskorilas-do-7-3-v-kazakhstane?yrwinfo=1607680158513055-1782765038900429665100330-production-app-host-sas-web-yp-166 Any use of the materials is allowed only if there is a hyperlink to www.khabar.kz
https://kapital.kz/experts/91339/lokdauny-davyat-na-byudzhet.html
https://kapital.kz/finance/90869/v-zdravookhraneniye-investirovali-pochti-150-mlrd-tenge.html
