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Is a Spending Freeze Sufficient to Stabilise the Contribution Rate in Germany’s Statutory Health Insurance? A Counterfactual Simulation - P4H Network

Is a Spending Freeze Sufficient to Stabilise the Contribution Rate in Germany’s Statutory Health Insurance? A Counterfactual Simulation

Germany’s statutory health insurance expenditure has consistently outpaced member contribution revenues by about 1% annually for nearly 25 years, necessitating further contribution rate increases unless policy changes occur. A proposed spending moratorium aims to limit expenditure growth to revenue increases, but this alone won’t be enough due to the aging insured population. To stabilize contribution rates by 2029, expenditure growth per insured person must be reduced by 0.4 percentage points annually below revenue growth, offsetting higher costs from more elderly members.

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