Rising NCDs in China driven by tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks underscore the need for stronger health taxes. New modelling shows a 20% price hike could yield major health and economic benefits. Evidence supports phased, product-specific tax reforms, complemented by public health measures to strengthen long-term impact.
China faces a growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) driven by tobacco use, alcohol consumption, and rising intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Although smoking prevalence has declined, China still accounts for nearly a quarter of the world’s smokers, and alcohol and SSB use have surged, particularly among men and youth. According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data, tobacco and alcohol ranked among the top risk factors for disease burden, while SSB-related health losses grew more than tenfold since 1990. The WHO’s “3 by 35 Initiative” calls for a 50% real-price rise in unhealthy products through taxation by 2035. While China has adjusted tobacco taxes over the years, overall rates remain below WHO recommendations, and alcohol and SSBs face limited or no dedicated taxes.
A new study by Tiange Chen and colleagues in The Lancet Public Health projects that raising taxes by 20% could yield major health, economic, and fiscal gains through 2050. Incremental increases would further improve outcomes and equity, with diminishing fiscal returns only beyond high tax shares. Phased implementation, tailored across products, and complementary interventions such as promoting healthier alternatives are key to effective reform.
