Following an initial opinion published in April, the Comité d’alerte has published a second opinion on compliance with the National Health Insurance Expenditure Target (Ondam) for 2024. The Ondam target for 2024 was set at €254.9 billion in the last Social Security Financing Act (LFSS).
Over the last six months, the Committee notes an increase of 5.7% in healthcare expenditure for the general scheme, compared with the same period in 2023. This is 1.5 points higher than the 4.2% increase forecast in the last budget. According to the experts, this significant increase, which would be attributable to “most items”, reflects the dynamic volume of procedures, goods and services covered by the health insurance system.
The Comité d’alerte anticipates a slippage in healthcare spending of “just over €1 billion” by the end of 2024. Despite the recent cost-cutting measures implemented by the public authorities, this would result in healthcare costs of around €110 billion. This slippage could, however, be contained to more than €500 million, thanks to a €765 million reserve and a commitment by the Assurance Maladie to further reduce tariffs for medical biology procedures (generating €120 million in savings by 2024). Lastly, with revenues also lower than forecast, the projected deficit of the social protection system is estimated at €16.6 billion by the end of 2024. The Alert Committee’s third opinion will be issued by October 15, 2024 at the latest.
