Originally published in 2018, this study utilized a projection model to assess Ethiopia’s ability to sustain its primary care system in the face of decreasing external support. The study also examined the projected costs associated with primary healthcare delivery. The results of the model highlighted that if real external resources remained at the 2011 level during Ethiopia’s five-year health sector plan (2016-2020), the country’s domestic resource mobilization alone would only be able to cover half of the estimated funds required. However, by taking into account out-of-pocket spending, which includes retained user fees, Ethiopia had a promising chance of financing the continuous provision of primary care during that period. Looking ahead, over a span of 20 years (2016-2035), the model showed that the sustainability of primary care services without increasing contributions from households will heavily depend on significant economic growth and increased government funding for primary care. This underscores the importance of financial risk protection measures to mitigate the potential challenges posed by limited resources and ensure the ongoing provision of essential healthcare services
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