The study analyzes Vietnam’s progress on financial risk protection (FRP) as part of Universal Health Coverage using data from six national surveys covering 2010–2020. It evaluates multiple FRP indicators, including catastrophic, impoverishing, and financial hardship expenditures, and projects trends to 2030 using Bayesian models. Findings show relatively high national FRP coverage in 2020, with only modest gains expected by 2030 and low probabilities of achieving most UHC targets. Persistent inequalities by region, ethnicity, education, and wealth remain, with rural and minority groups most disadvantaged. The study concludes that stronger health financing reforms and equity-focused policies are essential for Vietnam to advance toward UHC and reduce health-related financial vulnerability.
