The projection of levels and composition of financial resources for healthcare expenditure (HCE) and relevant trends can provide a basis for future health financing reforms. This study projects Iran’s HCEs by the sources of funds- government health expenditure, social security organization health expenditure, out-of-pocket payments, etc.- in the year 2030. It projects that the total HCE as a percentage of the GDP will increase from 9.6% in 2016 to 10.7% in 2030.
The study reveals that the share of government health expenditure in total HCE will potentially decrease and this is a cause for concern in the future of public healthcare and social health protection in Iran. This would continue the population’s reliance on out-of-pocket payments and slow down the country’s progress towards universal health coverage.
To avoid the impact of financial and economic crises on population health, Iran’s financing policies could move towards options that ensure system resilience.
